This report presents projections of population from 2015 to 2025 by age and sex for Illinois, Chicago and Illinois counties produced for the Certificate of Need (CON) Program.
As actual future population trends are unknown, the projected numbers should not be considered a precise prediction of the future population; rather, these projections, calculated under a specific set of assumptions, indicate the levels of population that would result if our assumptions about each population component (births, deaths and net migration) hold true. The assumptions used in this report, and the details presented below, generally assume a continuation of current trends.
These projections were produced using a demographic cohort-component projection model. In this model, each component of population change – birth, death and net migration – is projected separately for each five-year birth cohort and sex. The cohort – component method employs the following basic demographic balancing equation:
P1 = P0 + B – D + NM
P1 = Population at the end of the period;
P0 = Population at the beginning of the period;
B = Resident births during the period;
D = Resident deaths during the period; and
NM = Net migration (Inmigration – Outmigration) during the period.
The model roughly works as follows: for every five-year projection period, the base population, disaggregated by five-year age groups and sex, is “survived” to the next five-year period by applying the appropriate survival rates for each age and sex group; next, net migrants by age and sex are added to the survived population. The population under 5 years of age is generated by applying age specific birth rates to the survived females in childbearing age (15 to 49 years).
These projections began with the July 1, 2010 population estimates by age and sex produced by the U.S. Census Bureau. The most recent census population of A...